The Missed Opportunity of 2018

This is another reason why I founded #earthlobbyist,  For our, and all the grandchildren.  2018 was  a year marked by the USA president’s  destructive, retrograde policies,  by backsliding among big nations, by fresh data showing that carbon dioxide emissions are still going up, by ever more ominous signs  (devastating wildfires and floods, frightening scientific reports) of what a future of unchecked greenhouse gas emissions is likely to bring.

The United States refused to endorse  the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming issued in October 2018  by the United Nations scientific panel on climate change calling for swift reductions in fossil fuel use by 2030 to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, which it said were approaching much faster than anyone had thought.

The trump international energy and climate adviser, Wells Griffith,   fails to recognize the clean energy economy or the threat of  Man Made Atmospheric Carbon Creation to the national economy, population  and infrastructure  when he said   “The United States has an abundance of natural resources and is not going to keep them in the ground. We ( GOPS & 45) strongly believe that no country should have to sacrifice their economic prosperity or energy security in pursuit of environmental sustainability.” The reality *IMO*  is the reduction of Big Fossil Fuel production will cost these companies and their investors future short term income that will be paid for by future generation when the damage has been done and these carbon industrialist investors are dead

Referenced Article published 12.27.18

This post incorporates excerpts from the referenced article by  TheEditorial Board   of The New York Times which  represents the opinions of the board, its editor and the publisher. It is separate from the newsroom and the Op-Ed section

The Primary Directive of Earthlobbyist

The Primary Directive of Earthlobbyist is to meet people so we can talk with them about their climate change beliefs, where they live  which  can be accomplished only by physical travel. An Earthlobbyist will visit  public meetings, coffee-shop, beauty salon, diner, bar, house of worship, sports event or school and just talk with people. For this I  seek sponsorship and others who will join me making this same commitment.

Greenland’s Unprecedented 2018 Ice Loss

Very Cloudy March Day by DaveC

Melting and runoff started creeping upward just when the first stirrings of human-caused climate change hit the Arctic, in the mid-19th century, the same time the internal combustion engine was created. This doesn’t bode well for the future, particularly because air temperatures in the Arctic are rising faster than anywhere else on the planet.

SOURCE :   https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/12/greenland-ice-sheet-is-melting-faster-than-in-the-last-350-years/

Fire Tornados: New Climate Change Weather Forecast

The reality of Atmospheric Carbon Acceleration will create new  weather events unlike any we have known unless we all aggressively work to stop climate change.  Climate Change Denial Syndrome prevents people from taking action as they cling to false beliefs to protect their personal worldviews and investment in the Carbon Economy

Read this amazing story of the two hour fire tornado that was observed in Redding, California on July 28, 2108 as reported in The San Francisco Chronicle

“As much as I hate to say it, this is what the future of wildfires looks like,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA. “Except the acceleration hasn’t ended yet.”

In 2017, fires had set new state records for size and destruction. Those records would fall again in 2018 as flames threatened Yosemite National Park, torched mansions in Malibu and, in the worst fire in California history, wiped out the Sierra foothills town of Paradise. Ninety-three civilians and six firefighters would die. The Carr Fire Tornado had jumped a river, blasted across fields, leveled neighborhoods and rendered the landscape smooth and alien.

The Science Behind California’s “Fire Tornado” from Smithsonian Magazine What made the Redding fire whirl a true and terrifying oddball was the intensity of the Carr Fire and the high ambient air temperatures, which have been near triple digits, likely added extra energy to the whirl.

A 30,000-foot-tall convection column — a plume filled with ash, debris and hydrocarbons — ballooned in the sky, condensing into fluffy pyrocumulus clouds. The column acted like the lid on a pot of boiling water. When you took it off, oxygen fed the fire, sucking up the hot air. Flames soared 400 feet in the air. It would grow to 1,000 feet wide, the length of three football fields, and produce temperatures double those of a typical wildfire. Its howling obliterated every other sound.

ABC  Laura Anthony captured the moment a fire whirl formed during the Camp Fire near the town of Paradise, northern California. The phenomenon, sometimes called a ‘fire devil’, is created when cool and hot air merge, creating a swirling effect. The inferno covered 111,000 acres

in 2016 the Santa Barbara Sherpa Fire spawned a Fire Tornado you can see in this  27 second video

A 100% carbon-free goal is good for business.

Two US electric utilities recently declared something remarkable: It’s cheaper to tear down their coal plants and build renewable-energy plants than to keep the old boilers running. Committing to a 100% carbon-free goal, even before we quite know how to reach it, is good for business.  That’s before income tax credits of 30%  for new renewables built by 2023.

Across the U.S. over 90 cities, more than ten counties and two states, have already adopted ambitious 100% clean energy goals

The 2018 History of Climate Change

This link takes you The New York Times Climate Reporting Recap for 2018 as of Dec 12, 2018. Today, we can not doubt the reality of what has happened to our Earth  since the internal combustion engines was invented in 1860. The conversion of fossil fuels to atmospheric carbon is a  scientific reality that corresponds to the industrial age. Before the 1800’s the atmospheric Carbon level was around 280.  By 1979 it has increased to 336 which you can see at the 2:00 -2:17  point of this 4:17 video.

Anybody who denies climate change needs to look at their personal reasons for doing so, consider their informational sources, and decide what their grandchildren will think of this decision. Denial is the first step toward acceptance because it reinforces all our established beliefs, while ignoring new reality.

Now is the time to become an Earthlobbyist so you can call your elected representatives to accountability. The only people befitting from an ongoing commitment to fossil fuel are the ones who sell it. While we will not eliminate fossil fuel use we can reduce atmospheric carbon by active choices including Carbon Capture and less use of,  or more efficient airplanes.

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USA President Dismantling US Climate Efforts as Warnings Grow Worse

 

By The Associated Press  (Nov. 28, 2018) 

 The USA president has dismissed his administration’s warnings about the impact of climate change, including a forecast released Friday that it could lead to economic losses of hundreds of billions of dollars a year by the end of the century. 

An email obtained by The Associated Press under the Freedom of Information Act shows the administration withdrew from the Paris agreement with no clear climate policy in place.  

Auto experts say the GOP administration’s relaxing of mileage standards will deepen American drivers’ devotion to heavier, fuel-gulping sports utility vehicles over more fuel efficient cars.

In October 2018, almost 65 percent of new vehicles sold in the U.S. were trucks or SUVs. In September, 2018 the GOP administration proposed relaxing 2016 rules that would have required companies to do more to detect and plug methane leaks at oil and gas installations.

CREDITS: Associated Press writers Matthew Lee and Michael Biesecker in Washington and Tom Krisher in Detroit contributed to this report.

READ 11.28.18 ARTICLE  BY CLICKING HERE:

NOAA’S Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide & Chlorofluorocarbons gas index up 41% since 1990

Carbon dioxide, or CO2, is by far the most important greenhouse gas in both total amount and rate of increase, and is responsible for 80 percent of the increased warming influence captured by the AGGI since 1990.

The globally averaged annual temperature during 2017 was third-warmest in NOAA’s 138-year global temperature record, behind 2016 and 2015.

Record 2017 warmth was observed across parts of the western and central Pacific Ocean, western Indian Ocean, southern South America, and the southwestern contiguous U.S. and scattered across parts of the northern Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Middle East, and eastern Asia.

The five warmest years on record for the contiguous U.S. have all occurred since 2006.

Access    THE NOAA ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX (AGGI)

The Earth can’t easily adjust to the rate of change right now.

 A complete melting of Greenland’s mile-thick ice sheets would dump seven meters (23 feet) of extra water into the world’s ocean.

“What we’re seeing right now ( 2018) is really unprecedented. These melt increases are driven by warming, which is caused by humans pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,” says Ellyn Enderlin, a glacier scientist at the University of Maine who was not involved in the study. “The feedbacks the Earth has, the checks it has—they can’t make up for that. The system can’t adjust to the rate of change right now.

Methane (worse than C02) emissions are 60% higher than the 2015 U.S. EPA inventory estimate,

Science  21 Jun 2018:      Methane (worse than C02) use/waste is 60% higher than the 2015 U.S. EPA inventory estimate   Methane emissions from the U.S. oil and natural gas supply chain were estimated using ground-based, facility-scale measurements and validated with aircraft observations in areas accounting for ~30% of U.S. gas production. When scaled up nationally, our facility-based estimate of 2015 supply chain emissions is 13 ± 2 Tg/y, equivalent to 2.3% of gross U.S. gas production. This value is ~60% higher than the U.S. EPA inventory estimate, likely because existing inventory methods miss emissions released during abnormal operating conditions. Methane emissions of this magnitude, per unit of natural gas consumed, produce radiative forcing over a 20-year time horizon comparable to the CO2 from natural gas combustion. Significant emission reductions are feasible through rapid detection of the root causes of high emissions and deployment of less failure-prone systems.

> #earthlobbyist #carbonnegativenow #citizensclimatelobby http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2018/06/20/science.aar7204

Climate Change is Happening Faster Than We Thought, Now What?

Worldwide, carbon emissions are expected to increase by 2.7 percent in 2018    

Reducing carbon emissions is essential  to stop global warming.  in 2015 two hundred  nations forged the Paris Agreement to acknowledge the necessity of keeping climate warming below 3.6 degrees. The acting president of the US does not agree with this, which I do not understand. This is why I became an Earthlobbyist.

The world is not on course to remain as we know it

The US produces over 30% of the global atmospheric carbon footprint

According to the International Journal of Science Nature   Global warming will happen faster than we think right now, with serious problems in 11 years. There is no time to wait to act. Now is the time to demand environmental security for ourselves and our posterity.

China is investing in renewable energy, but it is also building more coal power plants at home and planning others around the world, including Africa, where hurricanes originate. New carbon emission require the manufacture of more Carbon Capture and Storage Plants

NOW is the time to become an  Earthlobbyist

Lead  Source Article From The New York Times ( click on picture)

Insects, Lizards, Birds and Frogs Are Now Disappearing Faster Than Ever

Insects are the vital pollinators and recyclers of ecosystems and the base of food webs everywhere. Trillions of bugs flitting from flower to flower pollinate some three-quarters of our food crops, a service worth as much as $500 billion every year. (This doesn’t count the 80 percent of wild flowering plants, the foundation blocks of life everywhere, that rely on insects for pollination.)

In Britain, as many as 30 to 60 percent of species were found to have diminishing ranges.  A 2014 review in Science tried to quantify these declines by synthesizing the findings of existing studies and found that a majority of monitored species were declining, on average by 45 percent.

“We notice the losses,” says David Wagner, an entomologist at the University of Connecticut. “It’s the diminishment that we don’t see.”

The 2016  Entomological Society of Krefeld,  Germany study  found that, measured simply by weight, the overall abundance of flying insects in German nature reserves had decreased by 75 percent over just 27 years. If you looked at midsummer population peaks, the drop was 82 percent. The final study looked at 63 nature preserves, representing almost 17,000 sampling days, and found consistent declines in every kind of habitat they sampled. This suggested, the authors wrote, “that it is not only the vulnerable species but the flying-insect community as a whole that has been decimated over the last few decades. ”For some scientists, the study created a moment of reckoning. “Scientists thought this data was too boring,” Dunn says. “But these people found it beautiful, and they loved it. They were the ones paying attention to Earth for all the rest of us.”

A 1995 study, by Peter H. Kahn and Batya Friedman, proposed the way some children in Houston experienced pollution summed up our blindness this way: “With each generation, the amount of environmental degradation increases, but each generation takes that amount as the norm.” Are we a humans isolated from the world by ignorance and denial  the same way children are?

In The Once and Future World,” the journalist J.B. MacKinnon cites records from recent centuries that hint at what has only just been lost: “In the North Atlantic, a school of cod stalls a tall ship in midocean; off Sydney, Australia, a ship’s captain sails from noon until sunset through pods of sperm whales as far as the eye can see. … Pacific pioneers complain to the authorities that splashing salmon threaten to swamp their canoes.” There were reports of lions in the south of France, walruses at the mouth of the Thames, flocks of birds that took three days to fly overhead, as many as 100 blue whales in the Southern Ocean for every one that’s there now. “These are not sights from some ancient age of fire and ice,” MacKinnon writes. “We are talking about things seen by human eyes, recalled in human memory.

Bradford C. Lister and Andres Garcia studied Puerto Rico’s Luquillo rainforest with data taken during the 1970’s. In October 2018  they reported the biomass had fallen 10 to 60 times. Analyses revealed synchronous declines in the lizards, frogs, and birds that eat arthropods. Over the past 30 years, forest temperatures have risen 2.0 °C,  indicating that climate warming is the driving force behind the collapse of the forest’s food web

In the United States, one of the few long-term data sets about insect abundance comes from the work of Arthur Shapiro, an entomologist at the University of California, Davis. And so here I am in Year 46,” he said,  spending five days a week, from late spring to the end of autumn, observing butterflies. In that time he has watched overall numbers decline and seen some species that used to be everywhere — even species that “everyone regarded as a junk species” only a few decades ago — all but disappear. Shapiro believes that Krefeld-level declines are likely to be happening all over the globe. “But, of course, I don’t cover the entire globe,” he added. “I cover I-80.”

“People who studied fish found that the fish had fewer mayflies to eat. Ornithologists kept finding that birds that rely on insects for food were in trouble: eight in 10 partridges gone from French farmlands; 50 and 80 percent drops, respectively, for nightingales and turtledoves. Half of all farmland birds in Europe disappeared in just three decades.”

”  When asked to imagine what would happen if insects were to disappear completely, scientists find words like chaos, collapse, Armageddon. Wagner, the University of Connecticut entomologist, describes a flowerless world with silent forests, a world of dung and old leaves and rotting carcasses accumulating in cities and roadsides, a world of “collapse or decay and erosion and loss that would spread through ecosystems” — spiraling from predators to plants. E.O. Wilson has written of an insect-free world, a place where most plants and land animals become extinct; where fungi explodes, for a while, thriving on death and rot; and where “the human species survives, able to fall back on wind-pollinated grains and marine fishing” despite mass starvation and resource wars. “Clinging to survival in a devastated world, and trapped in an ecological dark age,” he adds, “the survivors would offer prayers for the return of weeds and bugs.”

Parts of this preceding text was sourced from the New York Times, written by Brooke Jarvis, and reflected upon by David Carr on December 2,  2018

The truth gets harder to ignore and more essential to proclaim.  My project earth lobbyist dot com explores science and the failure of people to look beyond their immediate interests. No longer can anybody ignore the facts or worry about past failures. Now is the time to grab the steering wheel or commandeer the pilot house of our environment. Now is the time to demand legislative action on behalf of the grandchildren of today

 

 

Burning Rain forests Forests for Palm Oil is crazy

The tropical rain forests of Indonesia, and in particular the peatland regions of Borneo, have large amounts of carbon trapped within their trees and soil. Slashing and burning the existing forests to make way for oil-palm cultivation had a perverse effect: It released more carbon. A lot more carbon. NASA researchers say the accelerated destruction of Borneo’s forests contributed to the largest single-year global increase in carbon emissions in two millenniums, an explosion that transformed Indonesia into the world’s fourth-largest source of such emissions.

The insanity must stop now.   In the mid-2000s, Western nations, led by the United States, began drafting environmental laws that encouraged the use of vegetable oil in fuels — an ambitious move to reduce carbon dioxide and curb global warming. But these laws were drawn up based on an incomplete accounting of the true environmental costs.  SOURCE: NYTimes 11.20.2018

Earthlobbyists must demand clean vehicle fuel, higher efficency  and Carbon capture technology now

Click on the picture to read the whole story now.

Become an Earth Lobbyist or a Patron today

 

Have climate models historically projected global warming correctly?

Conclusion

Climate models published since 1973 have generally been quite skillful in projecting future warming. While some were too low and some too high, they all show outcomes reasonably close to what has actually occurred, especially when discrepancies between predicted and actual CO2 concentrations and other climate forcings are taken into account.

 

Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming?

More Health Risks Identified From the Changing Climate

 

Crop yields are declining. Tropical diseases like dengue fever are showing up in unfamiliar places, including in the United States. Tens of millions of people are exposed to extreme heat.

www.nytimes.com/2018/11/28/climate/climate-change-health.html?

The report, published Wednesday in the public health journal The Lancet, incorporates the work of 24 academic institutions and United Nations agencies and follows a major climate assessment issued last week by the United States government.